Admits his assumption government would act rationally was “incorrect”
A top media lawyer and leading legal voice in the months post-EU referendum has shifted his stance on whether Article 50 will be triggered.
In a series of tweets posted to his timeline yesterday, solicitor David Allen Green told his 84,000+ followers that his view on the legal mechanism for leaving the EU and whether it will ever be activated has “shifted”.
Green — who has recently been commissioned by Oxford University Press to write a book on Brexit — believed Article 50 was very unlikely to be triggered, a view he was vocal about on social media.
This stance was shared by the likes of head of Durham Law School Thom Brooks and, interestingly, Legal Cheek readers. In response to comments made by Brooks in August suggesting Article 50 would never be invoked, we ran a Twitter poll to find out whether our readers agreed with him — and they did.
Now Green, one of the most vocal proponents of this viewpoint, has clarified his position in a series of nine tweets.
1. On A50
I used to think it unlikely it would be triggered.
— David Allen Green (@DavidAllenGreen) October 5, 2016
2. I was always careful not to say 'never' but I did maintain the probability A50 would be triggered was low and become lower over time.
— David Allen Green (@DavidAllenGreen) October 5, 2016
3. I still think it is less likely than likely, not least of scale of task ahead and March is six months away and anything can happen.
— David Allen Green (@DavidAllenGreen) October 5, 2016
4. But I no longer think it is a low probability, even if more unlikely than likely. It is also not becoming ever-less probable.
— David Allen Green (@DavidAllenGreen) October 5, 2016
5. I had assumed the government would act rationally about Article 50. That was an incorrect assumption.
— David Allen Green (@DavidAllenGreen) October 5, 2016
6. I also had not foreseen how much the government would seek to load on to 'transitional arrangements' (see https://t.co/AV0hDwvgEz )
— David Allen Green (@DavidAllenGreen) October 5, 2016
7. Because of this, my view has changed. A50 is still not inevitable and Brexit still is almost impossible as a task (19 hurdles, etc)
— David Allen Green (@DavidAllenGreen) October 5, 2016
8. But regardless of the difficulties, this government is capable of doing it anyway.
— David Allen Green (@DavidAllenGreen) October 5, 2016
9. Brexit is still going to be fascinating.
/Ends
— David Allen Green (@DavidAllenGreen) October 5, 2016
It will be interesting to see whether Green’s revelation will prompt any other Article 50 sceptics to change their viewpoint.